000 AXNT20 KNHC 190600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REOCCUR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 40W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH SURGE OF MOISTURE S OF 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 2N TO 10N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 71W FROM 15N TO INLAND VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 82W FROM 17N TO OVER NORTHERN PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N38W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 05N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS NE INTO THE NW GULF NEAR TO OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF TO 94W WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W. OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N94W TO 17N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT IS OVER THE SE AND NW BASIN WHILE 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WIND PREVAILS ON THE NE GULF. E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NE GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH FRI EVENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN. FOR DETAILS SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N W OF 78W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING HAZE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SW TO W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 64W ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. E OF THE RIDGE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N75W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 26N46W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING THE TROPICS S OF 23N EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AFTERWARDS...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR