000 AXNT20 KNHC 172337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 7N TO THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE FAR NW GULF JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA COVERING THE W GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. BILL ARE N OF 27N W OF 94W. FOR MORE INFORMATION OF T.D. BILL SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPAT2/WTNT32 KWNH. A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF TO 23N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF TO 92W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W. A SEABREEZE IS GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE W FLORIDA COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND OVER CUBA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE NE GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W CONTINUING ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS COVERING THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CUBA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... PULSING TO GALE FORCE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... THIS EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HAITI. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF INSTABILITY AND THE PASSING OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 67W ANCHORED NEAR 32N76W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THEN OVER CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. TWO UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE CENTERED 28N61W AND A SECOND ONE NEAR 23N48W. THE SURFACE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N31W ALONG 25N49W TO A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N72W CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 20N INTO THE CARIBBEAN THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NW/SE ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH FRI THEN WILL ALIGN ALONG 28W/29N OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW