000 AXNT20 KNHC 170553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 97.0W AT 17/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM E OF AUSTIN TEXAS MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 15N19W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 19W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 15W-19W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N42W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF MOISTURE S OF 10N BETWEEN 41W-48W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N58W TO 14N58W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 55W-62W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LENGTHY EASTERLY JET STRETCHING FROM 12N28W TO 09N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SURINAME AND GUYANA. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N71N TO 18N71W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A POLEWARD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 64W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 08N30W TO 06N42W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF IS INFLUENCED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...ONE AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 22N94W AND THE OTHER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 23N86W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS LARGELY INVOLVED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 94W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 90W WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 16N W OF 80W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A PART OF WHICH...BETWEEN 70W- 80W...IS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE UPON EXAMINING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. E OF 70W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT STRONG LEVELS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE...30 KT...FORECAST WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N76W. FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. THE ONLY FEATURE ALONG THE DISCUSSION BOUNDARY IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 53W-70W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN