000 AXNT20 KNHC 162356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 96.9W AT 17/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 9 NM NE OF VICTORIA TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. AT 16/1645 UTC T.S. BILL MADE LANDFALL ON MATAGORDA ISLAND TEXAS. ALTHOUGH BILL IS NOW INLAND OVER SE TEXAS IT IS STILL GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF N OF 22N BETWEEN 92W-97W. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 3N-10N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 57W FROM 14N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W-70W FROM 16N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOW IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N18W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WAVE NEAR 7N36W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N41W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF/ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-24W AND BETWEEN 32W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED T.S. BILL. THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF SPREAD INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND MOVING INTO ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BILL COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W WHILE AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE E GULF EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR SW GULF FROM 22N96W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N84W. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-92W. A SEABREEZE IS GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE W FLORIDA COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND OVER CUBA. THIS THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. T.S. BILL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE NE GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 13N80W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY FRI. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF THE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SET UP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N74W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT DIPS S ALONG THE N PERIPHERY THROUGH 32N49W TO A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 32N56W THEN ALONG 31N62W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH E-NE OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 26N48W TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N75W CONTINUING INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 23N/24N INTO THE CARIBBEAN THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NW/SE ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN ALIGN ALONG 29N OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW