000 AXNT20 KNHC 161157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 28.2N 96.0W AT 16/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 26 NM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS AND ABOUT 91 NM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N36W TO 12N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP BEST IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH THE SIGNATURE NOTED BETWEEN 33W-41W AMIDST GENERALLY EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE USUAL DYNAMICS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 50W-57W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 16N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 57W-67W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 60W-68W. FARTHER WEST...AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W- 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF VENEZUELA S OF 11N BETWEEN 63W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 18N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS WITH THE STRONGEST 850 MB TO 700 MB SIGNAL ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATED S OF 17N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N17W TO 10N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N21W TO 03N42W TO 04N49W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 10W-19W...FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 24W-29W...AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 37W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WHILE TROPICAL STORM BILL INFLUENCES THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF THIS MORNING...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF 87W OUTSIDE OF THE CORE WIND FIELD OF BILL...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM 29N90W TO 24N81W. BILL IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND MAKE LANDFALL TUESDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ACROSS MARINE AREAS...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND EXTEND ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS GENERALLY W OF 80W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MORNING PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRYING TREND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ADD IN LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W AND TRADES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS. TO THE EAST OF 80W...UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUING AS THE PRIMARY IMPACT. STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W IMPACTS THE SE CARIBBEAN BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N E OF 67W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N75W. FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING. THE ONLY FEATURE CREEPING CLOSE TO THE DISCUSSION BOUNDARY IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W TO 32N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 45W-65W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN