000 AXNT20 KNHC 152353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF LOW WITH GALE WARNING... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 15/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM 29N94W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 27N94W TO 24N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N94W ALONG 26N92W TO 29N94W. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL FORMATION...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SW LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND TUE. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2 AND FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO 4N29W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N48W TO 9N49W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N55W ACROSS THE WAVE TO 14N60W INCLUDING BARBADOS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 16N83W TO PANAMA/ COSTA RICA BORDER MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N18W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N28W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N31W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-36W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND GALE FORCE WINDS AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N91W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO OVER SE LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH NW TO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA GENERATING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N82W TO 29N88W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N91W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF TAMPICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N95W TO 19N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS PRODUCING THE GALE FORCE WINDS NE OF THE 1006 MB LOW. THE 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NW BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER TEXAS BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI TUE AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 14N80W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGES ARE PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 64W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVERNIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED AND SW CARIBBEAN ON THU. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF THE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SET UP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N72W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT DIPS S TO OVER BERMUDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE THEN NARROWS NEAR 27N43W CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 26N55W THEN INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 27N66W TO A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N77W CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 23N INTO THE CARIBBEAN THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE E/W SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG 26N/27N TO FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW