000 AXNT20 KNHC 151734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF LOW WITH GALE WARNING... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 25N93W. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO ACROSS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 22N90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FEATURE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N91W INTO THE LOW CENTER THEN SW TO 22N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 87W-94W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE TROPICAL FORMATION...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 13N23W TO 05N26W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE LIES WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY AFRICAN JET WITH WINDS REACHING 35-45 KT. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 15N50W TO 07N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE CONTENT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS FEATURE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N57W TO 07N60W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 55W-62W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE...WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 56W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N82W TO 08N81W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 82W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONLY OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WITHIN A FEW NM N OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA MAINLY ALONG 10N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 14N17W TO 08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS FROM THIS POINT TO 07N25W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N27W TO 06N46W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS W REACHING THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SW FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFFSHORE REACHING THE E GULF S OF 26N AND E OF 83W. WHILE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...FRESH SE WINDS EXTEND FARTHER N AND E FROM THE LOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 86W- 91W ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW OVER THE W GULF TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COASTLINE. WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. THE BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR W PORTION...WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL W OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA AND SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES INHIBITING CONVECTION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WHOLE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 2 CENTERS...THE FIRST IS A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N77W AND THE OTHER IS A 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N31W. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH CONTINUES INHIBITING CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED N OF OUR AREA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 57W- 62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PERSIST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA