000 AXNT20 KNHC 151043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 23N91W THAT IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 23N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N90W INTO THE LOW CENTER THEN SW TO 20N94W. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W. GIVEN THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 15/0256 UTC INDICATED RETRIEVALS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N26W TO 13N23W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-30W AND LIES WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY AFRICAN JET WITH WINDS REACHING 35-45 KT. GIVEN THE USUAL DYNAMICS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A RELATIVE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO 18N46W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 42W-50W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N59W TO 13N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 53W-62W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODEST GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 54W-62W. FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 55W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N81W TO 16N82W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N68W WITH ENERGY LIKELY SPLITTING TO THE NW AND W. THE STRONGEST 850 MB TO 700 MB SIGNAL ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA IS INDICATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 11N81W. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 10N20W TO 07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N26W TO 04N30W TO 04N42W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 28W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE INFLUENCED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURES UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N91W ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. THE RESULTING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE THE NEARLY COLLOCATED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW GULF NEAR 23N93W AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W. WHILE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS EXTEND FARTHER NORTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 86W-93W ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COASTLINE THIS WEEK. WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FORM 23N-27N BETWEEN 87W-92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE INFLUENCE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND GENERALLY N-NW FLOW W OF 70W. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W...THE OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND STRONG TRADES S OF 18N. E OF 70W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N65W TO A BASE NEAR 12N70W IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE STABILITY EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND NE VENEZUELA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 26N W OF 75W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN