000 AXNT20 KNHC 150600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 23N91W THAT IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N91W INTO THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W. GIVEN THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 14/2350 UTC INDICATED A FEW NON-RAIN FLAGGED RETRIEVALS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 12N19W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 17W-24W AND LIES WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY AFRICAN JET WITH WINDS REACHING 35-45 KT. GIVEN THE USUAL DYNAMICS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A RELATIVE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N44W TO 15N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 40W-50W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N57W TO 15N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 52W-62W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODEST GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 53W- 59W. FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 54W- 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SURINAME AND GUYANA. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N80W TO 20N80W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N68W WITH ENERGY LIKELY SPLITTING TO THE NW AND W. THE STRONGEST 850 MB TO 700 MB SIGNAL ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA IS INDICATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 12N80W. MOST ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N23W TO 04N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 25W- 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE INFLUENCED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURES UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N91W ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. THE RESULTING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE THE NEARLY COLLOCATED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW GULF AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W. WHILE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS EXTEND FARTHER NORTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 86W- 93W ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COASTLINE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE INFLUENCE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 14N W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND GENERALLY N-NW FLOW W OF 70W. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W...THE OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG TRADES S OF 18N. E OF 70W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N65W TO A BASE NEAR 11N70W IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE STABILITY EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 26N W OF 77W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N52W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN