000 AXNT20 KNHC 132337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER WMO FZNT02 KNHC OR MIAHSFAT2. THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 05N37W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB TROUGH IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. DESPITE THAT TPW SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT PREVAILING FROM 04N- 14N...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE AS STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR DOMINATES THE REGION INHIBITING CONVECTION AND SAHARAN DUST IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N46W TO 05N48W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA MAINLY N OF 09N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED S OF 09N BETWEEN 45W-48W. A E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N71W TO 09N71W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION. A W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N82W TO 05N82W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 09N AFFECTING PANAMA AND THE EPAC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W TO 07N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 07N35W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N39W TO 05N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF...ONE LOCATED NEAR 23N90W AND THE OTHER NEAR 30N86W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 26N AND W OF 91W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 25N AND E OF 89W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE CENTERED NEAR 18N88W. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS W REACHING THE GULF WATERS. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO SPREAD INTO THE S-CENTRAL GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W AFFECTING CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EPAC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THE E HALF OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-81W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE E WILL REMAIN DRY. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY A TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 28N46W TO 31N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 28N53W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 26N42W. THIS LOW HAS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 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