000 AXNT20 KNHC 131802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 15N TO 05N ...MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. TPW SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 13N TO 04N. SAHARAN DUST NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE. DEEP MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TPW S OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD TO OVER COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EVIDENT IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT WITH THIS WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 13N AND ACROSS PANAMA TO OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS CONFINED MAINLY S OF 10N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N W OF 81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W TO 07N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 08N34W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N37W TO 05N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE OVER THE GULF...ONE LOCATED NEAR 30N86W AND THE OTHER NEAR 23N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN AND NORTHERN BELIZE...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND 15 KT DOMINATES THE GULF AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC SURFACE RIDGING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N89W IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN AND NORTHERN BELIZE...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 81W TO 88W. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND A SMALL AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURE. CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FOCUS INTO THE GULF AS THE LOW DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N59W AND IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO 27N68W WHICH SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N54W. FARTHER EAST...A 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 24N43W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO