000 AXNT20 KNHC 121755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 25W/26W FROM 4N- 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 36W/37W FROM 4N TO 14W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SAME BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS THE WAVE ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY S OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 9N24W THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N28W TO 7N35W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N39W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 28N85W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM 19N93W TO 26N90W SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EASTERN GULF UNDER THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC AND ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF TODAY. EXPECT ENHANCED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. DYNAMIC LIFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 77W TO 88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N50W PROVIDES GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 27N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N41W TO 26N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 35W TO 40W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGHS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO