000 AXNT20 KNHC 121100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 12/0600 UTC IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 25W/26W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 4N-13W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SAME BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS THE WAVE ABOVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 56W S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 9N24W THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N26W TO 6N34W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N35W ALONG 5N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-34W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 53W-58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 22W-27W...FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 34W-46W...AND FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N91W ALONG 23N92W TO S MEXICO 19N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 89W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 91W. THIS IS LEAVING THE W GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO LOUISIANA. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 18N W OF 74W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 14N74W TO 16N66W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 74W INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CUBA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF BERMUDA ALONG 31N75W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W TO 22N58W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 27N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 56W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N47W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES N OF 25N AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 25N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER WINDS WILL PULSE N OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW