000 AXNT20 KNHC 120552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E/CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 32W FROM 5N-14W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N68W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 7N70W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N25W TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N31W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N35W ALONG 4N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-21W...WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N41W TO 7N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-25W... WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-32W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N E OF 92W TO THE N GULF COAST AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N90W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE W GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO LOUISIANA. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 18N W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 14N73W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 70W AND S OF 17N W OF 80W INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRI THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND SUN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 70W. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM E OF BERMUDA ALONG 31N73W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N63W TO 22N59W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W ALONG 27N60W TO 26N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N47W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO POSITION FROM 30N65W TO NE FLORIDA ON SAT AND FROM ALONG 28N TO NE FLORIDA ON SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW