000 AXNT20 KNHC 111033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 3N-12W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N62W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 13N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N27W ALONG 4N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-27W...FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-43W AND FROM 9N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 43W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 25N86W TO W CUBA THEN S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N E OF 92W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 92W S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W- 96W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MONRING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NE GULF AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE T.D. THREE-E IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC STRENGTHENS. SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING N ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND EXTENDING AN AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC WITH A SECOND AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CUBA. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND FRI THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 77W TO OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N65W TO 23N66W AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 27N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY. A E/W SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST W OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW