000 AXNT20 KNHC 110002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 22W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 46W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 60W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. SSMI TPW IMAGERY AND THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N26W TO 04N43W TO 03N51W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR EASTERN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 27N82W TO 24N89W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUOUS INFLOW OF MODERATE MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH ALONG THE LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 29N E OF 90W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT TO GENTLE S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY INTO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE BASIN PROVIDING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS E OF 76W S OF 18N. OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BASIN...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N84W TO 15N88W...INCLUDING CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF 21N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-31N W OF 77W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE CUBA COASTLINE BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 66W SUPPORTS A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 26N65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N60W SW TO THE LOW TO 24N72W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF THE LOW CENTER. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS