000 AXNT20 KNHC 101042 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N41W TO 4N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 56W- 59W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDING ALONG 83W/84W S OF 16N TO OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 17N19W 12N20W TO 7N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 16W- 21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W TO OVER CUBA AND S FLORIDA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N90W WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N83W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 92W-95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PACIFIC REGION S OF MEXICO. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE NW GULF BY LATE THU THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO SAT AS THE LOW S OF THE AREA DISSIPATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 77W-86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...W CUBA...AND JAMAICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-17N E OF 66W. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N57W TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N58W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N48W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N41W. AN UPPER TROUGH THE NE ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N21W ALONG 27N34W TO 18N46W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N22W ALONG 27N25W TO 26N31W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NE OF BARBADOS AND EXTENDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD W THU AND GRADUALLY LIFT N TO 28N FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW