000 AXNT20 KNHC 100549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 3N-12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N54W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 54W AND THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDING ALONG 83W S OF 16N TO OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 17N19W 10N21W TO 6N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N34W TO 1N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 13W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-49W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST WITH A 1013 MB HIGH NEAR 27N93W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL AND SW GULF WED AS ATLC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 18N E OF 65W. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED THEN ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N59W TO 24N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N57W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N50W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 27N32W TO 18N47W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N24W ALONG 27N27W TO 27N36W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF BARBADOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE WED. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD MODESTLY W THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY LIFT N TO 29N BY SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW