000 AXNT20 KNHC 091747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N39W TO 11N39W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MODEST GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-42W AND A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 07N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 36W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N57W TO 11N54W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE MIRRORS A 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT...WITH ENHANCEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST FROM A MID-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE PROPAGATING WAVE ENERGY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 51W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 17N85W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AND ITS MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LOW-LEVEL MONSOON GYRE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION NEAR 09N96W. THE WAVE IS ALSO LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION SW TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 13N19W TO 04N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 02N30W TO 03N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N- 11N BETWEEN 14W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N- 09N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. THIS ACTIVITY LIES TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE. GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION EXTENDING AN AXIS SW OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ADVECTING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS REGION ALSO EXHIBITS MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME LOCALLY STRONG...FROM 09N-22N BETWEEN 76W-85W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW IS VERY DRY AND PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED...PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N77W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N76W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N62W THAT SUPPORTS A COLLOCATED 1015 MB SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 31N69W. THE TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N61W SW TO 26N70W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FINALLY...A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N26W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 28N38W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN