000 AXNT20 KNHC 091038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM 5N-15N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N- 10N BETWEEN 36W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 50W-57W BEING ENHANCED BY A CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST NW OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDING ALONG 83W S OF 16N TO ACROSS COSTA RICA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N20W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N W OF 14W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE W GULF WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N90W TO 19N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE S/CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N- 21N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N80W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE BORDER OF PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 65W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE N PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND WILL MOVE W-NW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE W TROPICAL ATLC WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEING INDUCED BY DIFFLUNCE ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N78W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS JUST NE OF BERMUDA SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW OVER BERMUDA WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W TO 33N70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N62W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 27N65W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SW SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE SW SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N58W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N52W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 26N35W TO 18N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N27W ALONG 28N33W TO 29N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR BARBADOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N43W. THE SW ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG ROUGHLY 23N TUE THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N TO 27N BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW