000 AXNT20 KNHC 090001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS NEAR 34W FROM 02N TO 15N MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND IS TILTED FROM 11N50W TO 02N53W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRESENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AN AXIS NEAR 81W S OF 16N MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 05N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N35W TO 01N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 25W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH 25N83W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N93W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N104W TO THE NE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO HELPING TO PROMOTE ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST TO MODERATE TO FRESH EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS 27N. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WATERS W OF 70W ARE DOMINATED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICS TO THE N-NE AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT E OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN... EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO STRONG DUE TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON JUST E OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE AREA ALSO UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 29N78W WITH ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 34N65W. TROUGHING EXTENDS THROUGH BOTH CENTERS WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR NOTED ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING S OF 27N W OF 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM NEAR 32N54W TO 27N57W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 13N57W WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE E. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE SW N ATLC N OF 30N E OF 72W WHILE A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE TO THE S-SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 31N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS TO THE E OF 65W. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE E AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING NOSES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY