000 AXNT20 KNHC 081758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TPW DATA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD... MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND THE NICARAGUA COAST/ COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE INCLUDED IN THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR 08/0600 UTC. IT WAS DECIDED TO ANALYZE ONLY ONE TROPICAL WAVE AT 08/1200 UTC...BASED ON TPW DATA...700 MB WIND FIELDS...AND LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...TO 7N17W...TO 8N27W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. THE 31W/32W TROPICAL WAVE BREAKS UP THE WIND FLOW OF EACH FEATURE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 5N25W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD AND FROM 60W WESTWARD...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N NORTHWARD AND FROM 86W EASTWARD...FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 95W AND TEXAS AND MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND IT GENERALLY MOVES WESTWARD WITH TIME DURING THE MORNING HOURS...UNTIL FINALLY DISSIPATING AROUND 1800 UTC ON THE AVERAGE. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W...TO THE 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX AND KIPN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING IN TEXAS...IN HARLINGEN AND PORT ISABEL AND AT THE ELLINGTON AIRPORT IN HOUSTON...IN LOUISIANA...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH...IN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI AND IN MOBILE ALABAMA...IN FLORIDA IN PERRY AND IN NAPLES. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD... MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS FEATURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.. IS IN THE AREA OF THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.73 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AS THE TWO DIFFERENT WIND REGIMES CROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR MAYAGUANA AND GREAT INAGUA...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH SOME NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ABOUT ONE HOUR AGO...IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT REACHES HISPANIOLA FIRST...AND THEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 21N62W. IT WILL MOVE TO 21N67W AT THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP BEING NEAR 23N75W BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 63W. NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N28W TO 28N30W...REACHING A 25N40W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N44W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N57W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W 31N30W BEYOND 32N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT