000 AXNT20 KNHC 072344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N28W TO 05N31W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 27W-31W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 01N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N72W TO 06N75W MOVING W AT 20 KT. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE PART OF THE WAVE OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 73W-75W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 04N81W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AFFECTING PANAMA AND THE EPAC MAINLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 06N30W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N32W TO 02N49W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE E OF THE BASIN PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN THE TROUGHING AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N95W SUPPORTING A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 30N86W TO 27N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN INTO TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN INCLUDING JAMAICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS MAINLY N OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N82W TO 16N87W AS A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. TO THE E...ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-74W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED E OF ITS AXIS AFFECTING THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW PORTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 43N56W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH 30N76W. S OF THIS FRONT...A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THIS LOW THROUGH 31N62W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THE SURFACE LOW N OF 26N AND BETWEEN 57W-75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N43W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA