000 AXNT20 KNHC 070604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 27W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DRY AIR AND DUST DEPICTED BY METEOSAT IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE REGION OF THE ITCZ FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 44W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN REGION AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N W OF 42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER VENEZUELA WITH AXIS NEAR 65W EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 15N...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 73W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 08N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N21W AND CONTINUES TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N26W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 06N29W TO 04N42W AND FROM 03N46W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES SEE SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE JUST N OF HONDURAS. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER GULF. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 30N83W TO 27N82W TO 25N81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 83W. OTHERWISE...A 1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ON THE NW BASIN NEAR 28N92W PROVIDING VARIABLE WIND OF 5 TO 10 KT N OF 26N W OF 90W. E TO NE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE NW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CUBA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD S-SW TO A BASE JUST N OF HONDURAS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. OTHERWISE...TWO TROPICAL WAVES EXTENDS TO THE SW AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 71.5W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST AND THE TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. ...HISPANIOLA... CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN AND A ZONE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE JUST N OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N73W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO 29N67W AND SW TO 20N78W. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A RIDGE CENTERED NE OF HISPANIOLA GENERATE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 79W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N44W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ON THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR