000 AXNT20 KNHC 061749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 14N21W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS LARGELY NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N39W TO 09N38W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND AREAS OF THE EASTERN ATLC TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 29W-47W. PERHAPS CONVECTION WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY...BETWEEN 35W-42W...IS RELATED TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N51W TO 11N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES BETWEEN 48W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 48W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N71W TO 17N68W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N54W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO THE W-SW TO NEAR JAMAICA. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N16W TO 05N30W TO 04N39W TO 01N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 29W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N82W TO 19N86W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE BASIN...AS UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS FLOW IS DRY AND STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N83W TO 25N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N94W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N80W NE TO 22N70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INCREASES FARTHER WEST WITHIN A ZONE OF MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING IS CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE AMPLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 75W-85W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 76W-81W. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF 18N E OF 82W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME... ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 24N80W. THIS TROUGHING AND SHORTWAVE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST S-SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SW NORTH ATLC AREAS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 36N71W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N71W TO 27N73W TO 25N79W. GIVEN THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 70W-81W. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-78W ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-37N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN