000 AXNT20 KNHC 061108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N21W 4N37W 5N39W 4N43W 2N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD AND FROM 70W WESTWARD...FROM 70W WESTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...FROM 27N NORTHWARD...PASSING THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N74W TO 26N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND FROM 70W WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 26N64W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N85W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 26N83W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGVX...KXIH... KEIR...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS PRESENT IN THE SAME AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 21N52W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 10N75.5W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CARTAGENA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF SANTO DOMINGO...WITH SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. TO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD...GIVING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL END UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 21N51W...AND IT WILL END UP BEING NEAR 22N60W BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 63W. NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 25N40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N15W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N22W AND 16N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 66W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT