000 AXNT20 KNHC 060604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N18W 5N26W 5N35W 4N38W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W/47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD AND FROM 70W WESTWARD...FROM 70W WESTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...FROM 27N NORTHWARD...PASSING THROUGH 32N72W TO 27N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N73W TO 26N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND FROM 70W WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N84W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W TO 29N84W TO 26N82W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N86W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGVX...KCRH... AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...IN LOUISIANA ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND IN FLORIDA AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS PRESENT IN THE SAME AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 21N53W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTH WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL START NEAR 21N49W...AND IT WILL END UP BEING NEAR 24N51W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 63W. NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N55W 28N58W 26N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N41W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N16W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N22W AND 16N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT