000 AXNT20 KNHC 060005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 20W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY. SCATERRED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 22W. A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 30W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SAL TRACKING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. DUST IS ALSO PRESENT IN THIS REGION OF THE WAVE ACCORDING TO METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. A TRPCL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS NEAR 47W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF WAVE ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N TO 08N W OF 42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N17W TO 05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 05N22W AND CONTINUES TO E OF A TRPCL WAVE NEAR 04N30W...THEN RESUMES AT 04N31W AND CONTINUES TO 1N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 28W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRPCL WAVES SEE SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS S-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W NORTHWARD TO THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND S OF 26N E OF 85W. TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAILS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD EXTENDS S-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W NORTHWARD TO THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N W OF 73W...INCLUDING CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND NORTHERN JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N W OF 75W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NIGHT HOURS OVER CUBA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF 18N E OF 82W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPCL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD EXTENDS S ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 35N71W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N72W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM 30N80W TO 21N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N57W SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N54W TO 24N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR