000 AXNT20 KNHC 051745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 14N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS LARGELY NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 17W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N30W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND AREAS OF THE EASTERN ATLC TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N43W TO 09N46W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE WAS NUDGED A BIT FARTHER WEST DUE TO SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N65W TO 17N64W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N47W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N20W TO 06N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 04N30W TO 02N43W TO 02N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 10W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W SW TO 22N89W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF A LINE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NEAR 27N83W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THIS CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N85W INTO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N87W. FURTHERMORE...TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICYCLONIC GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOCUSED AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N83W NE TO 22N71W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INCREASES FARTHER WEST WITHIN A ZONE OF MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMPLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME LOCALLY STRONG...ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 19N. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF 18N E OF 82W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AT THIS TIME...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N76W SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N74W THEN SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR BISCAYNE BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 20N-28N W OF 65W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 22N W OF 71W IS NOTED AT THE BASE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 28N W OF 74W IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OFF THE COAST OF THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH RESULTING AT THE SURFACE ANALYZED FROM 23N62W TO 29N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN