000 AXNT20 KNHC 051056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N20W 4N26W 2N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N51W 8N55W 9N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W.WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N51W 8N55W 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD...COVERING THE AREA THAT IS FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A NORTH CAROLINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 72W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OF THE COAST...FROM 25N NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGVX...KVKY... AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... HARLINGEN TEXAS IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. ALICE TEXAS IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF HOUSTON...AND IN BEAUMONT...AND IN FLORIDA IN PENSACOLA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN EASTERN PANAMA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 23N56W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...FIRST WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND BE ALONG THE SAME LATITUDE AS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL WEAKEN...AND IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N25W AND 17N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT