000 AXNT20 KNHC 050604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 9N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N15W TO 5N22W 4N32W 1N40W 1N48W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD...COVERING THE AREA THAT IS FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A 37N79W VIRGINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX...KXIH... KVBS...AND KVQT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN CORPUS CHRISTI...AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN BEAUMONT... AND IN FLORIDA IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD. THE OVERALL COVERAGE BY MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IS FROM 17N NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 63W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO VENEZUELA BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND 70W...AND IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 23N57W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FEW MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CLOUD CEILING IS PRESENT IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...FIRST WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND BE ALONG THE SAME LATITUDE AS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL WEAKEN...AND IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N19W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N27W AND 17N34W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT