000 AXNT20 KNHC 050005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 25W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE...LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT DUST AND SAL IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. THERE IS DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO METEOSAT DUST AND SAL IMAGERY...WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE LACK OF CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 60W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N24W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 05N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N E OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BASIN AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. OVER THE SW AND SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN GULF. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 3 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN HIGH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 74W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL HONDURAS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N W OF 73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH TSTMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE AND BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AHEAD OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AND STABLE AIR N OF 27N W OF 75W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE TROUGH W OF 73W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N75W TO 30N75W SW TO ANDROS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 24N55W TO 19N62W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS AT THE SURFACE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS