000 AXNT20 KNHC 041748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 10N25W TO 03N26W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND THIS WAVE HOWEVER GOES-R SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPINGING ON THE WAVE FROM THE N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 10N35W TO 02N34W MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HOWEVER IT IS ALSO BEING INHIBITED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 13N58W TO 06N59W MOVING W AT AROUND 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AND MAKING THE WAVE LESS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N27W TO 03N33W THEN CONTINUES W OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 03N36W TO 01N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 25N80W ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 29N91W TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 28N. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPPED ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FLOW IS BRINING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTHERN TIP OF A SURFACE TROUGH BARELY EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 3 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 74W. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 74W. A 1009 MB STATIONARY SURFACE LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH WHILE A MORE INTENSE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W WITH ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA WITH 4-6 INCHES REPORTED AT ISLE OF YOUTH AND HAVANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE AIDE OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AHEAD OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 25N80W TO 31N76W TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 27N79W TO NEAR BIMINI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W WITH TROUGHING DOMINATING THE WATERS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 25N58W TO 20N63W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 20N54W TO 25N58W. OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS AT THE SURFACE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY