000 AXNT20 KNHC 031108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W...FROM 14N IN HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N85W IN COSTA RICA TO 14N87W IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N22W TO 6N32W TO 5N37W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N23W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS WITHIN 720 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING MUCH OF FLORIDA...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMZG AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN ALICE AND KINGSVILLE. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LOUISIANA IN PORT FOURCHON. LIGHT RAIN IS IN MISSISSIPPI IN GULFPORT AND IN BILOXI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN ALABAMA IN MOBILE AND IN GULF SHORES. IN FLORIDA...HEAVY RAIN IS IN MARIANNA...DRIZZLE IS IN PANAMA CITY...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...IN MARATHON KEY AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO CUBA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 85W. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W...FROM 14N IN HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG NOW IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD 74W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.84 IN HAVANA CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA TO HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD ABOUT 250 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL END UP ABOUT 75 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD... FROM A 29N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT 500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N60W 20N62W 15N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD... FROM A 34N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT 1300 NM TO 1400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 29N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 34W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT