000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W...FROM 14N IN HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N85W IN COSTA RICA TO 14N87W IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA...AND IT STOPS NEAR 12N16W IN NORTHWESTERN GUINEA-BISSAU. THE ITCZ IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N23W TO 6N30W TO 5N39W AND 1N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 9W AND 16W...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N23W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS WITHIN 720 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING MUCH OF FLORIDA...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS FROM BAY CITY TO SUGARLAND. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO ARE BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W...FROM 14N IN HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N85W IN COSTA RICA TO 14N87W IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND INTO THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N79W. NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W AT 03/0215 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING COMPARATIVELY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.84 IN HAVANA CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA TO HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD ABOUT 250 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL END UP ABOUT 75 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD... FROM A 30N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT 500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N59W 18N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD... FROM A 33N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT 1300 NM TO 1400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 30N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N21W 23N30W 19N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 33W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N45W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 38N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT