000 AXNT20 KNHC 022318 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS 205 NM W OF THE COAST OF GUINEA EXTENDING FROM 12N18W TO 05N17W...APPROXIMATELY MOVING AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IS THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 14W-20W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N49W TO 00N50W AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N23W AND CONTINUES TO 02N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 20W-40W. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE EXTENDS A TROUGH SW REACHING THE NE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ENTERS THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W TO 28N89W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 87W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 87W. TO THE W...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N82W TO 17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY S OF 20N BETWEEN 84W-87W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 74W. THERE ARE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT BETWEEN 69W-80W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AFFECTING CUBA JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLANTIC...MAINLY W OF 76W. AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N62W SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N BETWEEN 53W-59W. A SURFACE RIDGE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA