000 AXNT20 KNHC 021806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING. THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 16W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST AIR N AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ON ITS SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 13W AND 24W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS NEAR 50W...MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. FORMER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVED INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO EPAC WATERS NEAR 06N84W AND HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MAINLY OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO 03N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. SEE SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE EXTENDS A TROUGH S TO THE EASTERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO SW OF THE LOW TO 25N89W. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS EAST OF 87W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE N-NW BASIN ALONG WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IN THIS REGION OF THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE GOM SECTION EXTENDS S TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N82W TO 14N83W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A TONGUE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...EXTENDING TO CUBA...JAMAICA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... A TONGUE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL ISLAND. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N62W SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR