000 AXNT20 KNHC 012339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N46W TO 01N46W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 43W-46W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N82W TO 09N81W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 76W- 86W AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND JAMAICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA ENTERING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUE TO 07N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS POINT TO 03N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IS OVER W TENNESSEE EXTENDS ITS TROUGH S REACHING THE NW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS KEEPING THE NW GULF CONVECTION FREE MAINLY W OF 92W. TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 92W WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N87W TO 27N90W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N91W TO 20N94W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE COMBINATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1017 SURFACE LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N72W. S OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N71W TO 21N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS FROM 38N60W TO 30N73W. E OF THIS AXIS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 33N60W TO 31N61W AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG 60W AND N OF 21N. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE E ATLANTIC AND AFRICA SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE AGADIR AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST OFFICE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA