000 AXNT20 KNHC 011111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N17W AND 6N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N23W TO 4N32W TO 5N34W AND 4N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 15W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN CLUSTERS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 26W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI/NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO EAST TEXAS...TO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N SOUTHWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N91W TO 22N97W...AND TEXAS AND ITS COASTAL WATERS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN THREE-FOURTHS OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N84W 26N83W. THE TROUGH WAS INLAND IN FLORIDA AT 01/0000 UTC...AND RAINSHOWERS WERE INLAND IN FLORIDA AT THAT TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT THIS MOMENT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH...KHHV... KEHC...KCRH...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE VISIBILITIES ARE AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IN HARLINGEN AND 3/4 MILE IN BROWNSVILLE. FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE IN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF PLAINS. BAY CITY TEXAS AND PATTERSON LOUISIANA ARE REPORTING FOG AND A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE. LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALSO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...IN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...BEING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO 17N FROM 80W WESTWARD...IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI NEAR 18N75W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO- WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 23N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI NEAR 18N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 480 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N70W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 25N63W...AND THEN WITHIN 540 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N63W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N40W AND 18N41W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 65W. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT