000 AXNT20 KNHC 311747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 09N40W TO 01N41W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THIS AXIS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 39W-43W. A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N77W TO 07N77W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR REGIME WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 04N38W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N44W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-32W AND FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 93W. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N AND W OF 92W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN...WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION PREVAILING N OF JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAINLY N OF 18N. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS E OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-17N AND W OF 81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W WHERE A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH-STRONG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS AS AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE THIS...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE FEATURES. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 56W-69W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 37N43W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA