000 AXNT20 KNHC 310552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N39W TO 09N36W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 18N73W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE WAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 05N30W TO 04N38W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 02W...FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 17W-22W...FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 26W- 25W...AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 43W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NOTED OVER THE GULF ALONG 92W. WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THAT CONTINUES TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA IS OCCURRING GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. PREVIOUS TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL BRING THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 81W/82W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 20N E OF 84W. DEEP MOISTURE IS ADVECTING EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W/74W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS TO A RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CREATES A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN OVER THE ISLAND IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N70W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N69W AND S-SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE ATLC FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W. A PAIR OF 1031 MB HIGH CENTERS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N42W DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THESE FEATURES DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN