000 AXNT20 KNHC 270603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND 53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR