000 AXNT20 KNHC 261735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 12N WITH AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 06N30W TO 03N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W TO 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THAT AS OF 1600 UTC EXTENDED FROM 30N87W TO 28N88W TO 27N92W. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE LINE TO THE FLORIDA COAST NORTH OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N94W TO 18N96W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ASIDE FROM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE...EAST TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER A PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER COLOMBIA AND A DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE LOW AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP AND WILL LIKELY BE ADDED FOR THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW NOW EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE NEAR 28N58W. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED ON THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS AS WELL. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX AREA OF WEATHER EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 21N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONNECTION IS FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. A 1038 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 46N27W DOMINATES THE EASTERN NORTHERN ATLC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO