000 AXNT20 KNHC 251038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 11N WITH AXIS NEAR 39W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW HIGH CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS W AND E OF ITS AXIS. IN THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE AXIS...THIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATES FROM THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF IT. THE MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 400 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 09N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF IT FROM 03N TO 05N. METEOSAT DUST AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE...THUS RESULTING IN THE LACK OF CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 08N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 26W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE. WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N42W TO 0.5N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDS A TROUGH SE ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE W GULF...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 22N90W TO 17N94W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1032 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO 90W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 91W AND IN THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 84W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS GENERATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS FROM 10 TO 12 FT AND WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 18N W OF 85W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NE BASIN...ENHANCED BY SHALLOW MOISTURE. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SURROUND THE ISLAND AND ENTERS HAITI ...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N61W SW TO 29N64W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 29N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 145 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK 1021 MB LOW IS NEAR 26N57W LACKING CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR