000 AXNT20 KNHC 211051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FOR THIS MORNING. BEAUFORT 7-8 OR 32KT-46KT WINDS ARE FORECAST. AN EARLIER 2126 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 10W-12W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 9W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM 4N- 6N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO 16N93W. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 97W-102W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N82W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES E TO THE N BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA... AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SW TO W FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM AGAIN THU ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N68W. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 29N52W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THIS TROUGH N OF 24N BETWEEN 35W-48W. A 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 44N15W WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. AN EARLIER 2126 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 10W-12W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N47W ENHANCING THE SURFACE TROUGH. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N23W. EXPECT THE LATTER TROUGH TO MOVE E AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO UNTIL 1200 UTC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA