000 AXNT20 KNHC 201650 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 04N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE NE GULF. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN TODAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS SURROUNDING THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TONIGHT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W. MAINLY 10- 20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WEAKEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 35N53W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N52W TO 27N54W TO 27N63W TO 29N68W. THE WESTERNMOST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FORM 31N47W TO 24N53W TO 21N61W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N18W SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC SOUTH OF 32N EAST OF 44W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH CONVECTION. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO