000
AXNT20 KNHC 191030
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                        
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 05N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS  
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES 
FROM 01N-05N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                       

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER AND 
A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. A 
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING 
FROM 23N91W TO 19N92W. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO 
REPORT LIGHT FOR ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF 27N AND 
W OF 93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE 
TO DOMINATE THE GULF. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ADVECTING MOISTURE 
FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH  
TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING 
ISOLATED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 14N 
BETWEEN 71W-79W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...
                                                
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 
CURRENTLY ALONG 20N SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING 
AND DAYTIME HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
                        
A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 
1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N74W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 27N77W 
TO 25N77W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. TO THE E...A STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 20N69W TO 31N43W. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 47N26W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W 
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 
60W-70W WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA