000 AXNT20 KNHC 190519 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W CONTINUING TO 07N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N37W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES FROM 02N-06N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT IS REACHING THE NE GULF MAINLY N OF 28N AND E OF 90W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN 25N-27N AND E OF 82W. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT LIGHT FOR ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF 27N AND W OF 93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE GULF. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING ISOLATED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-79W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 20N SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N75W. CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 28N77W TO 24N77W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 20N67W TO 31N43W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 48N28W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-70W WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA