000 AXNT20 KNHC 181703 CCA TWDAT AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 08N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 175 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE EPAC WITH ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS ALONG 87W OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN FROM 23N94W TO 18N95W HAS NO CONVECTION NOTED WITH IT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW LOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM PANAMA NORTH TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N75W COVERS THE ATLC WEST OF 60W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N44W TO 23N55W AND UNDERCUTS THE WESTERN ATLC RIDGE TO 20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 49N33W PROVIDES GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC SOUTH OF 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLC NEAR 60W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO