000 AXNT20 KNHC 180522 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W TO 07N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 22W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC REGION COVERS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN W OF 90W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N82W. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 92W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF MANLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-93W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N88W TO 20N91W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REPORT LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 26N AND W OF 92W. A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH FAIR WEATHER. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-83W. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 69W-75W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N72W. FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N44W TO 25N52W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 21N71W. NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS TO 25N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 20N66W TO 21N71W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1030 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N26W. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME WEAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA